Trump tariffs to kick off today

Trump’s “Liberation Day” is finally upon us. The US President is set to announce tariffs at a White House Rose Garden ceremony later on today. The most recent update in regards to the tariffs appears to have come from the Washington Post which reported yesterday that Trump’s aides are drafting a proposal that would impose a 20% tariff on at least most imports to the United States. Despite the announcement being set for today, there appears to still be a high degree of uncertainty as to what they will exactly entail and in turn the possible retaliation by their trading partners. Specifically, EU Commission President Von Der Leyen stating that the EU holds “a lot of cards” which may be used as leverage for negotiations and that if needed, the EU may “push back”. In turn it appears that an escalation of trade tensions are inevitable at this point in time which in turn could funnel inflows into gold given its safe haven status and its risk-averse nature for investors. However, it should be noted that President Trump had stated earlier on this week that “We’re going to be very nice, relatively speaking, we’re going to be very kind”, which could imply that some room for negotiations still remains, yet whether that may be enough is still to be seen. In our view, the continued uncertainty over what exactly will be announced may lead to significant volatility in the markets, which in turn may aid the precious metal’s price. Staying with the US the ISM Manufacturing PMI figure for March came in slightly lower than expected at 49.0 versus 49.5, implying a continued contraction in the US manufacturing sector of the economy. The financial release may raise some concern over the Fed’s willingness and resolve to remain on hold for a prolonged period of time.

XAU/USD appears to be moving in an upwards fashion. We opt for a bullish outlook for gold’s price and aiding our hypothesis is the upwards moving trendline as seen on our chart, in addition to the RSI indicator which currently registers a figure above 70, implying a strong bullish market sentiment. Yet the RSI indicator’s figure also implies that the precious metal may be currently overbought and due a correction to lower ground. Nonetheless, for our bullish outlook to continue we would require a clear break above the 3150 (R1) resistance line with the next possible target for the bulls being the 3250 (R2) resistance level. On the other hand, for a sideways bias we would require gold’s price to remain confined between our 3050 (S1) support line and the 3150 (R1) resistance level. Lastly, for a bearish outlook we would require a clear break below the 3050 (S1) support level with the next possible target for the bulls being the 2950 (S2) support line.

EUR/USD appears to be stabilizing between our 1.0730 (S1) support level and the 1.0845 (R1) resistance line. We opt for a sideways bias for the pair and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure near 50 which tends to imply a neutral market sentiment. For our sideways bias to be maintained we would require the pair to remain confined between the 1.0730 (S1) support level and the 1.0845 (R1) resistance line. On the flip side for a bullish outlook we would require a clear break above the 1.0845 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 1.0940 (R2) resistance level. Lastly, for a bearish outlook we would require a clear break below the 1.0730 (S1) support level with the next possible target for the bears being the 1.0630 (S2) support line.

Other highlights for the day:

Today we get ADP National employment figure for March, the US Durable Goods orders and Factory orders rates both for February and ending the day is weekly EIA crude oil inventories figure. In tomorrow’s Asian session we note Australia’s final composite and services PMI figures for March, Australia’s trade balance figure for February and exports rate  for the same month and ending the Asian session is China’s Caixin services PMI figure for March. On a monetary level we note the speeches by ECB Schnabel,ECB Chief Economist Lane, ECB President Lagarde and Fed Governor Kugler.

XAU/USD Daily Chart

• Support: 3050 (S1), 2950 (S2), 2855 (S3)
• Resistance:  3150 (R1), 3250 (R2), 3350 (R3)

EUR/USD  Daily Chart

• Support: 1.0730 (S1), 1.0630 (S2), 1.0530 (S3)
• Resistance: 1.0845  (R1), 1.0945 (R2), 1.1045 (R3)

If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at research_team@ironfx.com

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