The Eurozone’s Preliminary HICP rates are due out today

The Eurozone’s Preliminary HICP rates for March are due to be released in today’s early European session. According to economists, the preliminary rate on a yoy level is expected to come in at 2.6%. Should the rate come in as expected or higher, it could imply persistent inflationary pressures in the Eurozone as a whole and thus could increase pressure on the ECB to adopt a more hawkish tone which could support the EUR. On the other hand, should the preliminary HICP rates come in lower than expected, it could imply easing inflationary pressures in the Eurozone as a whole and thus may weigh on the common currency.

The US Factory orders rate for February came in better than expected during the American session. The better-than-expected rates appear to have provided support for the dollar, as it further boosts the narrative that the US economy is more resilient than what may have been expected. Furthermore, the US JOLTs Job opening figure for February came in lower than expected but appears to have been immaterial in influencing the dollar’s direction. Over in the commodities markets, OPEC+ is set to meet today. According to Reuters sources, OPEC+ is unlikely to recommend any oil output policy changes during their meeting, which in turn could potentially provide some support for oil prices. On the other hand, should they unexpectedly increase the ‘cartels’ oil supply into the markets, it could weigh on oil prices.

US100Cash with the index currently on track to break below our upwards moving channel. We tend to maintain a sideways bias for the index and supporting our case is the narrowing of the Bollinger bands which imply low market volatility, in addition to the RSI indicator below our chart currently registering a figure of 50, implying a neutral market sentiment. For our sideways bias to continue we would require the index to remain confined between the 17800 (S1) support level and the 18500 (R1) resistance line. On the other hand, for a bearish outlook, we would require a clear break below the 17800 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 17160 (S2) support line. Lastly, for a bullish outlook, we would require a clear break above the 18500 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 19100 (R2) resistance line.

WTICash appears to be moving in an upwards fashion. We maintain a bullish outlook for the commodity and supporting our case is the RSI Indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure near 70, implying a strong bullish market sentiment, in addition to the upwards moving trendline which was incepted on the 27^th of March. For our bullish outlook to continue, we would require a clear break above 85.45 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 89.60 (R2) resistance line. On the other hand, for a sideways bias we would require the commodity’s price to remain confined between the 82.65 (S1) support line and the 85.45 (R1) resistance level. Lastly, for a bearish outlook we would require a clear break below the 82.65 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 79.20 (S2) support line.

Other highlights for the day:

Today in the European session, we note the release of Turkey’s CPI rates for March and Eurozone’s preliminary HICP rate for the same month. From the US we get the ADP national employment figure and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI figure, both being for March, while oil traders may be more interested in the release of the weekly EIA crude oil inventories figure. On the monetary front we highlight Fed Chairman Powell’s speech while we note that also Fed Board Governor Bowman, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, Fed Vice Chair Barr and Fed Board Governor Kugler are scheduled to speak. During tomorrow’s Asian session, we get Australia’s final Services PMI figure for March and February’s building approvals, while RBA Assistant Governor Jones is scheduled to make statements.

US100Cash Daily Chart

Support: 17800 (S1), 17160 (S2), 16300 (S3)

Resistance: 18500 (R1), 19100 (R2), 19700 (R3)

WTICash H4 Chart

Support: 82.65 (S1), 79.20 (S2), 75.80 (S3)

Resistance: 85.40 (R1), 89.60 (R2), 93.50 (R3)

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