Reserve Bank of Australia remains on hold

The Reserve Bank of Australia earlier on today kept interest rates steady at 4.35%. In her accompanying statement, Governor Bullock has stated according to some news outlets that “We are not saying what we might do but acknowledging that there is some softening”. The comments by the Governor may imply that the bank could be preparing to cut interest rates in 2025, which in turn may have weighed on the AUD.Over in China the trade data for November was released earlier on today. The exports rate came in lower than expected at 6.7% versus the expected rate of 8.5% and when compared to last month’s rate it showcased a significant decline from 12.7%. Moreover, the imports rate came in at -3.9% which is also significantly lower than the expected rate of 0.3%. The imports rate may be of concern to Aussie traders given their close economic ties with China and thus a lower-than-expected imports rate may also imply a reduction in demand for Australian goods, which could inadvertently weigh on the Aussie.Over in the US Equities markets, China as launched an anti-trust probe into Nvidia with the FT stating that the investigation into Nvidia (#NVIDIA) was opened for suspected violations of the country’s anti-monopoly law. The investigation in our view, is a retaliatory measure by the Chinese Government as tensions between the USA and China over a potential trade war under the incoming Trump administration intensify. Nonetheless, the probe by Chinese regulators could weigh on the company’s stock price.On a geopolitical level, tensions in Asia remain high with China moving naval assets around the island of Taiwan earlier on today. The posturing by the Chinese government is not something that hasn’t been seen before, yet any incident could have severe implications on the markets and thus may warrant close attention.

EUR/USD appears to be moving in a relatively sideways fashion. We opt for a sideways bias for the pair, yet the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure near 40, implying a bearish market sentiment. Nonetheless, for our sideways bias to continue, we would require the pair to remain confined between the 1.0475 (S1) support level and the 1.0650 (R1) resistance line. On the other hand, for a bullish outlook we would require a clear break above the 1.0650 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 1.0800 (R2) resistance line. Lastly, for a bearish outlook, we would require a clear break below the 1.0475 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 1.0330 (S2) support line.

AUD/USD appears to be moving in a downwards fashion. We opt for a bearish outlook for the pair and supporting our case is the downwards moving trendline and the RSI indicator below our chart. For our bearish outlook to continue, we would require a clear break below the 0.6370 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 0.6285 (S2) support line. On the flip side, the pair is currently testing our 0.6450 (S1) support level, and thus for a bullish outlook we would require a clear break above the 0.6450 (R1) resistance line with the next possible target for the bulls being the 0.6535 (R2) resistance level. Lastly, for a sideways bias we would require the pair to remain confined between the 0.6370 (S1) support line and the 0.6450 (R1) resistance level.

Other highlights for the day:

In today’s European session, we get Germany’s final HICP rate for November, Sweden’s GDP rate for October, Norway’s CPI for November and in the late American session, oil traders may be more interested the weekly API crude oil inventories figure. In tomorrow’s Asian session we get from Japan the Corporate Goods prices growth rate for November.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

• Support: 1.0475 (S1), 1.0330 (S2), 1.0195 (S3)
• Resistance: 1.0650 (R1), 1.0800 (R2), 1.0930 (R3)

AUD/USD Daily Chart

• Support: 0.6370 (S1), 0.6285 (S2), 0.6200 (S3)
• Resistance: 0.6450 (R1), 0.6535 (R2), 0.6610 (R3)

If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at research_team@ironfx.com

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