RBA: To hike or not to hike?

The USD got some support on Friday despite the mixed signals sent by the US employment report for August, while US stock markets ended the day mixed and gold refused to drop, breaking the negative correlation with the USD and reaffirming our suspicions that the relationship is skewed in favour of gold. On the commodities front, oil prices continued to rise, breaking the $87 per barrel barrier, pushed higher by a tight supply side. Today we note that US and Canadian markets are to be closed for a public holiday, so some thin trading conditions may emerge, primarily in the American session. Across the Atlantic, we note the speech of ECB President Lagarde, and should she sound hawkish we may see the common currency getting some support, with traders also comparing her stance to recent RBA communication. Broader global sentiment also remains sensitive to policy signals from central banks such as the RBA, which have influenced risk appetite in recent weeks. As markets continue to digest shifts in Fed expectations, RBA developments remain part of the wider monetary landscape shaping FX flows.

EUR/USD edged lower breaking the 1.0835 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance. Given the pair’s stabilization after the drop we tend to maintain a bias for the sideways motion to continue, yet note that the RSI indicator is near the reading of 30 implying a rather bearish sentiment on behalf of the market, hence some bearish tendencies are possible. Should the bears take over, we may see EUR/USD breaking the 1.0735 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.0635 (S2) support level. Should the bulls take over, we may see the pair advancing higher, breaking the 1.0835 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.0940 (R2) resistance level. 

Also, we highlight RBA interest rate decision during tomorrow’s Asian session and the bank is widely expected to remain on hold at 4.10%. Yet the bank’s incoming Governor Bullock, last week stated that rates may need to rise again. Should the bank proceed with a rate hike we may see the Aussie getting some asymmetric support tomorrow. On the other hand, we may see the bank preferring to remain on hold, yet the issuing of a rather hawkish accompanying statement may also provide some support for the Aussie. Should the bank remain on hold and the accompanying statement imply that the bank has reached or is near its terminal rate we may see the Aussie slipping.   

AUD/USD edged lower on Friday, dropping below the 0.6490 (R1) level once again. We tend to maintain a bias for the sideways movement to continue, which tends to be reaffirmed also by the RSI indicator, as it remains near the reading of 50, implying a rather indecisive market. Recent RBA signals may also be contributing to the pair’s muted momentum. Should the pair find fresh, extensive buying orders along its path we may see it breaking the 0.6490 (R1) resistance line clearly, aiming for the 0.6620 (R2) resistance level. Should a selling interest be expressed by the market, we may see the pair breaking the 0.6400 (S1) support line and aim for the 0.6285 (S2) support level.

Other highlights for the day:

We note in the European session, the release of Turkey’s CPI rates for August, Switzerland’s GDP rate for Q2 and Eurozone’s Sentix index. During tomorrow’s Asian session we note the release of Japan’s All Household spending for July and Australia’s current account balance for Q2.   

As for the rest of the week:

On Tuesday, we note the release of France’s Services PMI figure for August. On Wednesday we make a start with Australia’s GDP rate for Q2, a key release for markets monitoring RBA expectations, Germany’s industrial orders rate for July, the UK’s All-sector PMI figures for August, Canada’s Trade balance figure for July and lastly the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI figure for August, while on the monetary front, we note the release of BoC’s interest rate decision, which may be compared against recent RBA positioning. On a busy Thursday, we make a start with Australia’s trade balance figure for July, another indicator watched for its implications on RBA policy, China’s trade data for August, Germany’s industrial output rate for July, Germany’s industrial production rate for July, followed by the UK Halifax house prices rate for August, the EU’s Revised GDP rates for Q2 and finishing off with the US weekly initial jobless claims figure. Finally on Friday, we note Japan’s revised GDP rate for Q2 and Canada’s employment data for August, both of which may also influence broader market sentiment alongside ongoing RBA developments.

EUR/USD H4 Chart

Support: 1.0735 (S1), 1.0635 (S2), 1.0515 (S3)

Resistance: 1.0835 (R1), 1.0940 (R2), 1.1045 (R3)

AUD/USD H4 Chart

Support: 0.6400 (S1), 0.6285 (S2), 0.6170 (S3)

Resistance: 0.6490 (R1), 0.6620 (R2), 0.6725 (R3)

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