Jackson Hole conference begins today

ECB President Lagarde and FED Chair Powell are due to speak at Jackson Hole today, with both anticipated by market analysts to have the potential to greatly impact markets. The Jackson Hole symposium is usually attended by central bankers, finance ministers, academics and financial participants from around the world. Therefore, the symposium in itself could lead to increased volatility in the markets. Turkey’s Central Bank takes the markets by surprise with its greater than expected rate hike. The greater than anticipated rate hike which currently brings Turkey’s interest rate to 25%, has taken market analysts by surprise and could potentially indicate the growing influence of the new Central Bank Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan. Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI rate comes in lower than expected, hinting at easing inflationary pressures. Philadelphia Fed President Harker, hints that the bank may be near its terminal rate after having stated that “The Fed has probably done enough with policy, it is in restrictive stance” according to a report by Reuters. China according to Bloomberg has unveiled policies in order to ease pressure on the Chinese property markets, which could be an attempt to help prop up China’s struggling property developers who have faced numerous criticisms over the past few weeks. Germany’s economy stagnates in Q2, as was expected by market analysts, following their technical recession.

WTICash appears to be moving in an sideways  fashion, having failed to break below support at the 78.15 (S1) level. We tend to maintain a neutral outlook for the commodity and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our 4-Hour Chart which currently registers a figure of 50, implying a neutral market sentiment. For our neutral outlook to continue, we would like to see the commodity remaining between the 78.15 (S1) support and 79.80 (R1) resistance levels. For a bullish outlook to, we would like to see a clear break above the 79.80 (R1) resistance level with the next possible target for the bulls being the 83.20 (R2) resistance ceiling. On the other hand, for a bearish outlook we would like to see a clear break below the 78.15 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 75.00 (S2) support base.

Wheat appears to be continuing its ascent, despite temporarily breaking below our upwards moving trendline which was incepted on the 17^th of August. We maintain a bullish outlook for the commodity and supporting our case is aforementioned upwards moving trendline. For our bullish outlook to continue, we would like to see a clear break above the 630 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 662 (R2) resistance ceiling. On the other hand, for a bearish outlook, we would like to see a clear break below the 605 (S1) if not also a clear break below the 575 (S2) support levels with the next possible target for the bears being the 530 (S3) support base. Lastly for a neutral outlook, we would like to see the commodity remaining confined between the 605 (S1) support and 630 (R1) resistance levels.

Other highlights for the day:

In today’s European session, we Germany’s Preliminary IFO figures for August. During the American session we highlight the US University of Michigan Sentiment Final figure for August and on Monday’s Asian session, we note Australia’s Final retail sales rate for July. On a monetary level, we highlight the speeches by Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde during today’s Jackson Hole symposium.

#WTICash H4 Chart

Support: 78.15 (S1), 75.00 (S2), 70.60 (S3)

Resistance: 79.80 (R1), 83.20 (R2), 86.90 (R3)

#Wheat H4 Chart

Support: 605 (S1), 575 (S2), 530 (S3)

Resistance: 630 (R1), 662 (R2) 704 (R3)

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