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Gold prices broke above the key psychological level of $1,800 yesterday, as expectations for a possible delay of the tapering of the Fed’s QE program due to the increasing risks of the highly contagious Delta variant of the pandemic, prevailed. It should be noted that gold prices were also supported as the USD tended to weaken against a wide number of its counterparts yesterday, while US yields seemed to edge a bit higher which could provide a leash for gold’s bulls should they continue to rise. Also, the preliminary PMI readings for August tended to disappoint USD traders as their readings showed that economic activity expanded at a slower rate than expected in the current month raising investor’s eyebrows about the economic recovery of the US economy. The market’s attention now turns to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium for further clues regarding the Fed’s taper intentions, while today fundamentals could take the lead given the low number of high impact financial releases.
Gold’s prices rose yesterday breaking the 1800 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. We tend to maintain a bullish outlook for the precious metal’s prices as long as they remain above the upward trendline formed since the 10th of August. Under our daily chart, the RSI indicator is just above the reading of 50, which may imply a slight advantage for the bulls, yet could also imply that the market is not fully committed to the bulls yet. Should the bulls actually take charge of the precious metal’s direction, we may see its prices, aiming if not breaking the 1835 (R1) resistance line which capped the precious metal’s upward motion on the 15th of July. Should the bears take over, we may see the bullion reversing course, breaking the 1800 (S1) support line, the upward trendline and aim for the 1760 (S2) support level.
WTI prices supported by improved demand hopes
WTI prices were on the rise on Monday recovering from a steep loss over the past week as hopes for an improved demand outlook were on the rise. It should be noted that US drug regulator FDA granted full approval to the Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine, fanning investor hopes for higher fuel consumption and thus higher oil demand, as mobility is expected to increase. On the downside it should be noted that the US Department of Energy announced yesterday that 20 million barrels of crude would be sold to comply with relevant US legislation, which could increase the supply in the market and thus could have a detrimental effect on oil’s prices. Also please bear in mind, that fundamentally, downside risks are still present given that the pandemic’s highly contagious Delta variant still has a firm grip over the world and travel restrictions do exist in a number of countries. A weaker USD tended to provide support for oil’s prices yesterday, yet today we expect oil traders to keep an eye out for the API weekly crude oil inventories figure and should another considerable drawdown be reported, we may see oil prices gaining as it would imply a tight US oil market.
WTI prices rose considerably yesterday breaking the 64.00 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support, yet seem to find considerable resistance at the 66.00 (R1) level. Given that the downward trendline incepted since the 30th of July has been broken, we switch our bearish outlook in favor of a bias for a sideways movement for the time being. Should buyers continue with their bid, we may see WTI prices breaking the 66.00 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 69.35 (R2) level. Should a selling interest be displayed, we may see the WTI’s prices aiming if not breaking the 64.00 (S1) support line.
Other economic highlights today and the following Asian session:
Today we get Germany’s detailed GDP rate for Q2 and from the US the new home sales figure for July as well as the weekly API crude oil inventories figure. During tomorrow’s Asian session we note New Zealand’s trade data for July while BoJ’s Nakamura is scheduled to speak.
Support: 1800 (S1), 1760 (S2), 1725 (S3)
Resistance: 1835 (R1), 1875 (R2), 1915 (R3)
WTI H4 Chart
Support: 64.00 (S1), 61.75 (S2), 59.90 (S3)
Resistance: 66.00 (R1), 69.35 (R2), 72.10 (R3)
If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at research_team@ironfx.com
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JA 
