German elections seem to provide stable Government

The USD seems to continue the downward trajectory of the past three weeks, while across the pond the common currency got some modest support. On a fundamental level, the German elections tended to provide some hope for political stability in the largest economy of the Euro Zone, with center-right CDU/CSU party coming in first, leaving the far-right AfD second as was expected, and the center-left SPD came in third. The possibility of a grand coalition between the CDU and the SPD seems to be the most probable scenario to form a government that could prove to be stable. Furthermore, we note for EUR traders the release of Euro Zone and Germany related financial data, which could provide some support for the EUR should they come in better than expected. Yet the EUR may have not benefited from the German election results, as much as expected, while the pair does not seem to materially rising despite a weakening of the USD.

EUR/USD bulls seem to be hesitating, yet the pair remains above the 1.0450 (S1) support line. Given that the upward trendline guiding the pair since the third of February, remains intact we maintain our bullish outlook  for the pair. Also the RSI indicator remains above the reading of 50 implying a bullish predisposition of the market for the pair. Should the bulls continue to lead the pair higher, we may see EUR/USD aiming for the 1.0600 (R1) resistance line with the next possible target for the bulls being possibly the 1.0760 (R2) resistance level. Yet EUR/USD bulls seem to be hesitating and its characteristic that the pair was not able to form a higher peak since the 16^th of December, while the upper Bollinger band seems to capping the upward motion of the pair. Hence, should the bears  take over, we would expect the pair’s price action to break the 1.0450 (S1) support line initially and continue to break also the prementioned upward trendline in a first signal that the upward movement has been interrupted and continue to aim if not reach the 1.0330 (S2) support level.        

Across the world, JPY bulls seem to hesitate in today’s Asian session, yet market’s expectations for the BoJ remain the main driver for the Yen and any signs of a hawkish BoJ could renew the support for the Japanese currency. On a technical level, USD/JPY came short of testing the 148.65 (S1) support line. Yet the downward trendline guiding the pair since the 10^th of January remains intact, and the RSI indicator remains close to the reading of 30, implying a strong market bearish sentiment for the pair. Hence should the bears maintain control over the pair we may see USD/JPY breaking the 148.65 (S1) support line and aiming for the 145.90 (S2) support level. Yet the pair’s price action is flirting with the lower Bollinger band, which may cause the pair to correct higher. Yet a bullish outlook seems currently remote and for its adoption we would require the pair to break the prementioned downward trendline and continue to break the 151.35 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls to be possibly the 154.65 (R2) resistance level.      

Other highlights for the day:

Today we note the speeches by BoE’s Lombardelli, Ramsden and Dhingra as well as  BoC’s Gravelle.  

As for the rest of the week:

On Tuesday, we get UK’s CBI indicator and the US consumer confidence, both being for February, while on Wednesday we get Australia’s CPI rates for January. On Thursday we get Australia’s Q4 capital expenditure, Switzerland’s GDP rate for Q4, Euro Zone economic sentiment for February, Canada’s business barometer for February, the US durable goods orders for January, the revised US GDP rate for Q4 24, the weekly US initial jobless claims figure and Canada’s current account balance for Q4. On Friday, we get Japan’s February Tokyo CPI rates and the preliminary industrial output for January, Sweden’s final GDP rate for Q4, France’s final GDP rate for Q4, Switzerland’s KOF indicator for February, the Czech Republic’s final GDP rate for Q4, Germany’s final HICP rate for February, Germany’s preliminary HICP rate for February, the US headline and core PCE rates for January and Canada’s GDP rate for Q4.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

• Support: 148.65 (S1), 145.90 (S2), 141.75 (S3)
• Resistance: 151.35 (R1), 154.65 (R2), 158.45 (R3)

EUR/USD Daily Chart

• Support: 1.0450 (S1), 1.0330 (S2), 1.0175 (S3)
• Resistance: 1.0600 (R1), 1.0760 (R2), 1.0940 (R3)

If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at research_team@ironfx.com

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