Focus on Canada’s inflation metrics

The USD seems to have edged a bit higher against its counterparts yesterday and an overall picture of stabilization seems to emerge that could potentially break the greenback’s losing streak. The improvement of economic activity in the wider New York area in the current month, may have also provided a boost to the market sentiment. US stock markets sent out mixed signals yesterday, implying a rather indecisive market, while the earnings season enters in full swing and today, we highlight the releases of Bank of America (#BAC), Goldman Sachs (#GS), Johnson and Johnson (#JNJ) and Lockheed Martin which could make headlines.

Back in the FX market, we note that China’s better-than-expected GDP rate for Q1, tended to provide relief to market participants and provide a helping hand to the Aussie primarily during today’s Asian session, given the close Sino-Australian economic ties. Also, the release of RBA’s last meeting minutes tended to provide some support for the Aussie as the document showed that RBA policymakers considered hiking rates before remaining on hold yet the possibility of pausing rate hikes in order to see the monetary landscape as the dust settles seems to emerge. It should be noted that China’s industrial production and retail sales growth rates for March both outperformed market expectations and tended to reassure markets that growth is back in China. Overall the Chinese data may provide a boost to market sentiment and if actually so may provide support for riskier assets such as stocks or commodity currencies. Yet on a fundamental level, the geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Taiwan may cause a flight to safety from investors, given also the military drills expected in the Yellow Sea.

GBP/USD remained relatively unchanged yesterday, staying comfortably between the 1.2465 (R1) resistance line and the 1.2270 (S1) support line. We tend to maintain our bias for the sideways motion to continue, especially after cable’s price action was able to break the upward trendline guiding it since mid-March. Please note though that a slight bearish tendency may emerge as the RSI indicator remains below the reading of 50. Should the bears actually take charge of the pair’s direction we may see it breaking the 1.2270 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.2115 (S2) support level. Should the bulls take the reins of the pair’s direction, we may see cable breaking the 1.2465 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.2660 (R2) level.USD/CAD bounced on the 1.3335 (S1) support line yesterday, yet the overall picture of a sideways motion seems to be maintained. Hence we keep our bias for a sideways motion of the pair as it also broke the downward trendline incepted since the 10^th of April. Please note that the RSI indicator below our 4-hour chart runs just below the reading of 50 implying a rather indecisive market, which may allow the sideways motion to continue. On the other hand, should the market sentiment start tilting towards the bearish side and the RSI indicator approach the reading of 30, we may see AUD/USD breaking the 1.3335 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 1.3230 (S2) support line, a level which has not seen any price action since mid-November last year. Should a buying interest be expressed by the market we may see the pair breaking the 1.3465 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.3560 (R2) level. 

Other highlights for the day:

During today’s European session we note the release of UK’s employment data, the Eurozone’s ZEW Expectations and Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment both for April. During the American session we note the US Housing Starts Figure and Canada’s CPI print followed by BoC Governor Macklem’s and Fed Governor Bowman’s speeches. During the Asian session tomorrow, we note Japan’s Tankan Indexes for April followed by Australia’s Composite Leading Index for March.

GBP/USD H4 Chart

Support: 1.2270 (S1), 1.2115 (S2), 1.1925 (S3)

Resistance: 1.2465 (R1), 1.2660 (R2), 1.2865 (R3)

USD/CAD H4 Chart

Support: 1.3335 (S1), 1.3230 (S2), 1.3140 (S3)

Resistance: 1.3465 (R1), 1.3560 (R2), 1.3655 (R3)

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