Crypto Outlook: US Presidential Elections heading for a photo finish

Since our last report, the bullish momentum driving Bitcoin’s price appears to be easing.  Crypto bulls seem to be uncertain over the coin’s direction with the US Presidential Elections in their final stretch. In this report, we aim to shed light on the possible factors aiding to the recent developments in combination with a technical analysis of Bitcoin.

Crypto: Overview Report

US Presidential Elections tomorrow

The US Presidential Elections are set to occur tomorrow. Alongside the US Presidential elections, we also have the race for the House of Representatives, the Senate and Governorships, with each playing their own role in the formation of the US Government. Nonetheless, we are going to opt to focus on the US Presidential race between former President Trump (R) and Vice President Harris (D) which is too close to call, with odds for swing states swinging back and forth between Harris and Trump with less than 24 hours to go until polling stations open.

As a recap, both candidates have attempted to court the pro-crypto voter base with Trump having paid for a burger in BTC and touting himself as a pro-crypto advocate, whilst Harris has openly supported innovation in the digital asset space per CNBC. In our opinion, we tend to view a Trump victory as potentially more beneficial for the digital asset industry rather than a Harris victory, thus should former President Trump appear to be in the lead once polling stations open, in key swing states we may see the coin’s price gaining support.

Whereas should Trump appear to be lagging behind Harris once counting begins, it could weigh on the coin’s price. However, with Harris also having made some positive comments about digital assets, we could see some support in the crypto-markets, but perhaps not to the same extent that a Trump victory may have. Overall, we would not be surprised to see heightened volatility in the crypto market and in particular Bitcoin, as a number of scenarios could play out that may impact the coin’s direction.

Senate race between John E Deaton and Elizabeth Warren

As we mentioned above the US elections are their final stretch with polls opening for the Senate race tomorrow as well. Approximately one third of the US Senate seats are up for re-election, including the seat of Massachusetts which is a Democratic stronghold for Elizabeth Warren.

Our interest in the particular race comes from the Republican Challenger John E Deaton who famously represented the interests of XRP holders in the SEC vs Ripple saga which saw a partial victory for Ripple. Recent polls by ABC’s 538 poll of polls, have Elizabeth Warren in the lead by roughly 23 points as we enter the final stretch of the election cycle.

Nonetheless, in the event that Deaton is able to pull off a surprise victory, we may see crypto-currencies and in particular, XRP gaining support, given his very pro-crypto stance. However, as we mentioned before, Warren according to some polls has a very healthy lead against Deaton and thus the chances of victory for the pro-XRP lawyer are slim to none.

Crypto Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Daily Chart

• Support: 65300 (S1), 60400 (S2), 56600 (S3) 
• Resistance: 69375 (R1), 73580 (R2), 77185 (R3)

BTC/USD appears to be moving in a sideways fashion, having broken below our support turned to resistance level at the 69375 (R1) level. We opt for a sideways bias for the coin and supporting our case is the break below our upwards moving trendline which was incepted on the 11^th of October, in addition to the RSI indicator below our chart currently registering a figure below 60, implying that the bullish momentum that has been guiding the coin’s price may be easing.

For our sideways bias to continue, we would require the coin’s price to remain confined between the 65300 (S1) support level and the 69375 (R1) resistance line. On the flip side, for a bullish outlook we would require a clear break above the 69375 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the all time high figure of our 73580 (R2) resistance ceiling.

Lastly, for a bearish outlook we would require a clear break below the 65300 (S1) support line with the next possible target for the bears being the 60400 (S2) support base.

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