Crypto Outlook: BTC appears unsure as to which direction it should take

Since our last report, the bullish momentum driving Bitcoin’s price appears to have faded away, with Crypto bulls seemingly relinquishing some control to the Crypto bears. In this report, we aim to shed light on the possible factors aiding to the recent developments in combination with a technical analysis of Bitcoin.  

Crypto: Overview Report

UAE amends VAT.

According to a recent report by CoinDesk, the UAE has announced a series of amendments to its tax laws which include exemptions for crypto transactions from paying value-added tax or VAT for short. The amendment per the report makes it clear for the first time that the tax does not apply to digital assets.

In addition, the exemptions cover, the exchange and transfer of ownership of those assets which means that all cryptocurrency transfers and conversions will be exempt from the 5% levy. In our view, it appears that the most recent announcement by the UAE to update its VAT law, is in order to attract more Crypto investors and firms which in turn may financially benefit the nations ambitions of becoming a regional crypto hub.

Moreover, the further legitimization of cryptocurrencies may create future opportunities for more traditional financial institutions and services to pivot or incorporate digital assets. In conclusion, the continued push to adopt cryptocurrencies may aid the crypto markets overall and in particular, Bitcoin given its status as the “King of Crypto”.

However, any true impact on cryptocurrencies may not be seen immediately and thus the true impact or if there will be any, may take a prolonged period of time to be seen.

HBO to dox Satoshi?

HBO has joined the hunt to uncover the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonym behind the creator of Bitcoin. According to various media outlets, HBO is set to release a documentary on Tuesday, named “Money Electric: the Bitcoin Mystery”, in which HBO alleges to have discovered the identity of the infamous Satoshi. There are some unfounded claims that the HBO documentary may identify the deceased Les Sassaman as Satoshi.

Nevertheless, we opt to look at the big picture and that is whether or not the individual is alive. In the event that the individual mentioned by HBO is currently alive, then it may have a negative implication on Bitcoin’s price, as it may spark concerns about a potential sell-off, as  Satoshi’s BTC wallet which in February was valued north of $50 billion USD.

On the flip side, should the documentary identify and claim that Satoshi was Les Sassaman, it may not impact the coin’s price, as it may be assumed that access to the BTC wallet we mentioned above may have been lost and thus may not influence the BTC market.

Financial institutions to start trialling live digital asset transactions on SWIFT.

According to a post on ‘X’ by Swift, the worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication which is responsible for providing the main messaging network through which international payments are initiated, financial institutions from around the world will start trialing live digital asset and currency transactions on the Swift network.

The potential worldwide adoption of CBDC’s may fuel market optimism for cryptocurrencies and in turn may also aid the crypto markets as a whole, as a wider crypto adoption appears to be in sight from traditional financial institutions.

Crypto Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Daily Chart

• Support: 60680 (S1), 56600 (S2), 52455 (S3) 
• Resistance: 65300 (R1), 69300 (R2), 73280 (R3)  

BTC/USD appears to be moving in a sideways fashion after temporarily breaking above our 65300 (R1) resistance line and then moving to retest our 60680 (S1) support level.

We opt for a sideways bias for the coin and supporting our case is the break below our upwards-moving trendline which was incepted on the 7^th of September and the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure near 50, which implies a neutral market sentiment.

For our sideways bias to continue, we would require the coin’s price to remain confined between the sideways moving channel defined by the 60680 (S1) support level and the 65300 (R1) resistance line.

On the flip side, for a bullish outlook, we would require a clear break above the 65300 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 69300 (R2) resistance level.

Lastly, for a bearish outlook, we would require a clear break below the 60680 (S1) support level with the next possible target for the bears being the 56600 (S2) support line.

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تحذير بشأن المخاطر:

Crypto CFDs are an extremely high-risk, speculative investment and you may lose all your invested capital. Before trading, you need to ensure you fully understand the risks involved taking into consideration your level of experience and investment objectives. Seek independent advice, if necessary.