Financial markets await US employment report, Brexit update and stimulus packages

The main focus for traders today is possibly the US employment report for September to be released in the early US session. According to the expectations, the Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to be lower than previous month’s. Opposing, the Unemployment rate is forecasted to drop and the yearly Average Earnings are expected to rise perhaps making up for the less jobs created. Yesterday the weekly initial jobless claims figure was better than expected as claimants dropped lower than the previous figure and the forecast. The news supports the notion that the employment report today could be better than expected. Should the results be as forecasted or even better we could see the USD strengthening. However, at this stage any unexpected reading could provide increased volatility within the markets and caution is advised. The event usually produces significant market moving effects which sometimes even shift the effect into the next days. The USD Index (DXY) moved lower on Thursday for the fourth consecutive daily session, perhaps influenced by the ongoing stimulus package negotiations. EUR/USD which is probably USD driven, moved higher on Thursday covering for the ground lost in the previous day. Currently, GBP traders could be solely focused for any information on the Brexit front. In our opinion, any positive developments could support GBP immensely and the opposite. Please note that even if no progress is made, the news could be negative for GBP. Yesterday however, the EU announced it would be taking legal action against the UK for breaching their initial agreement on good faith. Even though the news could be negative and may have acted as a bearish sign for the GBP/USD yesterday, we keep on objective mind as to what could result from the current negotiations in Brussels. Yesterday, many headlines surged the media that various governments around the world may be preparing for new stimulus packages. The headlines point to economic weakness within some sectors as the pandemic continues. Some of these countries are Canada and Japan with the US already confirming that it requires further stimulus support. Gold and Silver moved higher on Thursday but did not impress with significant market movement. It is possible that the market remains in a wait and see position as we enter a very interesting month.
GBP/USD continued to move in a sideways motion between the (R1) 1.2950 resistance level and the (S1) 1.2815 support level. Even though both levels have been tested in the previous 4 hour sessions, they have not been breached. Other levels we have noted to the upside include the (R2) 1.3020 level and the (R3) 1.3105 line. In a selling scenario we have noted the (S2) 1.2765 level and the (S3) 1.2685 hurdle. The RSI indicator below our chart is currently moving nearby the 50 level and could be displaying some uncertainty for the currency pair’s direction in the next 4 hours.
XAG/USD also moved in a sideways motion between the (R1) 23.85 resistance level and the (S1) 23.20 support level. In a buying market we could see silver uplifted to the (R2) 24.30 line that we point out due to the fact it was tested on the 29th of September but not breached. The (R3) 24.45 hurdle is also imminent even higher. If traders sell silver then the (s1) 23.20 support level maybe the first stopping point. Lower the (S2) 22.60 could be the next target for traders while the (S3) 21.85 support hurdle stands out due to the fact that it was briefly tested in late September and is the lowest level reached in two months.

Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow

During the European session today, we get the Eurozone inflation data for September. During the US session we get the US employment report for September and the US factory orders reading for August.

GBP/USD 4 Hour Chart

Support: 1.2815 (S1), 1.2765 (S2), 1.2685 (S3)

Resistance: 1.2950 (R1), 1.3020 (R2), 1.3105 (R3)

XAG/USD 4 Hour Chart

Support: 23.20 (S1), 22.60 (S2), 21.85 (S3)

Resistance: 23.85 (R1), 24.30 (R2), 24.75 (R3)

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